By: Public Policy Institute of California – September 2020
SAN FRANCISCO—A slim majority support a November ballot measure that would change how commercial property is taxed, and well below half support a measure that would repeal the state’s ban on affirmative action in the public sector. Most Californians are concerned about contracting COVID-19—similar to May—while on the issue of race relations in the US, six in ten believe they have gotten worse in the last year, a major shift in opinion from early 2019. These are among the key findings of a statewide survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California.
Proposition 15 would change the tax assessment of commercial and industrial property by basing it on current market value instead of purchase price—amending the 1978 landmark citizens’ initiative (Prop 13) and creating a “split roll” tax. Among likely voters, 51 percent favor and 40 percent oppose, with Democrats (72%) far more likely to support than independents (46%) and Republicans (17%). Less than half of homeowners (47%) would vote yes, compared with 56 percent of renters. Younger Californians are much more likely than older residents to support Proposition 15 (60% ages 18 to 44, 46% age 45 and older). Support is highest among likely voters in the San Francisco Bay Area (62%) followed by those in Los Angeles (54%), Inland Empire (51%), Central Valley (47%), and Orange/San Diego (41%).
“Californians are divided on Proposition 15, with Republicans and Democrats, younger and older voters, and renters and homeowners showing widely different support for this tax and spending initiative,” said Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and CEO.
Proposition 16 would repeal a 1996 constitutional amendment (Prop 209) that banned the use of affirmative action involving race-based or sex-based preferences in public hiring decisions. Among likely voters, 31 percent would vote yes and 47 percent would vote no, with one in five (22%) undecided. Forty-six percent of Democratic likely voters support Proposition 16, compared with 26 percent of independents and 9 percent of Republicans. The San Francisco Bay Area (40% of likely voters) and Los Angeles (37%) are the only regions with more than one-third support (28% Orange/San Diego, 25% Central Valley, 20% Inland Empire).
“Support for Proposition 16 is well below 50 percent, with one in five voters undecided about this effort to add diversity as a factor in public employment, education, and contracting decisions,” Baldassare said.
Summary
- A slim majority of likely voters support Proposition 15, which would change how commercial property is taxed.
- Well below half of likely voters support Proposition 16, which would repeal the state’s ban on affirmative action in the public sector.
- Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by a wide margin, with 60 percent of likely voters favoring Biden/Harris and 31 percent favoring Trump/Pence.
- Most Californians remain concerned about contracting COVID-19, but a slim majority believe the worst is behind us.
The PPIC Statewide Survey delivers nonpartisan, objective, advocacy-free information on the perceptions, opinions, and public policy preferences of California residents. PPIC invites input, comments, and suggestions from policy and public opinion experts and from its own advisory committee, but survey methods, questions, and content are determined solely by the PPIC survey team. The PPIC Statewide Survey relies on a rigorous survey methodology and is a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative. The survey is conducted regularly throughout the year in the key areas of government, the environment, K–12 education, and higher education.
By: Public Policy Institute of California – September 2020
