By Leon Krauze | The Washington Post | SEP. 7, 2023 | Photo by Marco Ugarte
Things haven’t played out exactly as Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador had hoped they might.
For months, his party, Morena, had carefully planned the selection of its presidential candidate. Several months ago, López Obrador gave the green light to start the primary process earlier than the law allowed, and most of the plausible candidates in his party took up the challenge. Six candidates registered, and the primary race soon narrowed down to the two most prominent figures in López Obrador’s inner circle: the former foreign minister, Marcelo Ebrard, and former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum.
As the race kicked off, the party insisted it was running a fair contest: The candidate would be chosen through a series of public polls. Fairly quickly, however, it became apparent that Sheinbaum was being favored. Walls and fences across the country were painted with her campaign slogan. Her face peered from billboards and magazine covers.
Ebrard cried foul. “We have never seen so much lobbying, so many fake, paid polls. I’ve never seen such a smear campaign, even against my family, as the one we’re witnessing,” he said last month. Sheinbaum denied any bias in her favor.
On Wednesday, when Sheinbaum was anointed as Morena’s candidate, Ebrard’s exasperation boiled over. Posting on X (formerly Twitter), he compared the primaries to those run by the PRI, the hegemonic party that ruled Mexico for seven decades. Those primaries were invariably shams, with the winning candidate handpicked behind the scenes by the sitting president.
Ebrard has lost the primary, but he’s not out of the race altogether. As two women square off in next year’s election, the former foreign minister is weighing his options. Could he be a spoiler candidate?
Once the process ended, I asked Ebrard whether he had been the victim of an unfair system. “I view the process as highly questionable,” he told me. Ebrard also alleged mistreatment of his campaign official, Sen. Martha Lucía Mícher Camarena, who said police forcefully prevented her from observing the final tally of the party’s polls.
That afternoon, Morena chairman Alfonso Durazo ruled out any irregularities. “No incident affected the final result,” he said as he nominated Sheinbaum to be the party’s candidate. On Thursday, López Obrador praised what he called Morena’s “democratic process, which is unlike anything we’ve ever seen.”
Mexico’s election next year will be historic. For the first time, two women will compete for the presidency. Sheinbaum will face Senator Xóchitl Gálvez, whose candidacy has galvanized an opposition that until recently seemed doomed to collapse. Sheinbaum will advocate for a direct continuation of López Obrador’s governing project.
Gálvez sees the race differently. “It will be a contest between the State and the citizens,” she tweeted. In early polls, Sheinbaum leads with the advantage of an incumbent whose name has been all over the media for months. Gálvez is not that well-known yet. In a recent poll, only a third of voters said they recognized her.
The wild card could be Marcelo Ebrard himself. This is not the first time Ebrard has placed his political future in the hands of López Obrador, only to find himself discarded. It happened in 2000 and 2011 — in gubernatorial elections of Mexico City and the presidency, respectively — when López Obrador pressured Ebrard to step aside so that he could claim the positions for himself.
In 2018, Ebrard joined López Obrador’s team as foreign minister. He received various challenging assignments, several of which put his dignity to the test. It was Ebrard who was forced to give in to President Donald Trump’s bullying and crack down on Central American immigrants in exchange for the United States not imposing tariffs on Mexico. Perhaps he thought he would be rewarded for putting out fires for his boss? He was wrong. Now, Ebrard faces a dilemma. He could make the unlikely decision to distance himself from Morena and join Gálvez’s project. (After Wednesday’s mayhem, she extended him a cheeky invitation). Or he could become the third contender in next year’s election, perhaps by seeking the nomination of Movimiento Ciudadano, the only party that is not part of the opposition coalitionthat nominated Gálvez.
It's unclear what effect an Ebrard candidacy would have on the race. Some believe he could take away votes from the opposition, effectively helping Sheinbaum. Others suggest that, after what appears to be a genuine break with López Obrador, Ebrard could take votes away from Sheinbaum, blocking the ascent of the favored candidate of the man who has now denied him three times.
Enabler or spoiler, it’s up to Ebrard to decide what role he will ultimately play.
