Op-Ed by Professor Gonzalo Santos | OCT. 16, 2022
It’s a well-known fact that today the political map in California is decidedly non-competitive at the statewide level, lopsidedly Deep Blue in the vast majority of the state legislative and about 40 U.S. congressional districts, and Deep Red in about 10 or so.
I live in one of perhaps only two remaining competitive – or “purple” – U.S. congressional districts in the state - the Central Valley’s district 21, which includes portions of Kern, Kings, Tulare, and Fresno counties. As of 2022, it is the most Democratic district to be represented by a Republican in the country.
That Republican is David Valadao, one of the ten Republican representatives that voted to impeach president Trump for his role in the January 6, 2021 failed insurrection, and the sole one remaining standing for this November congressional elections.
The main reason why this mostly-rural Central Valley district is so Democratic, say in contrast to Kevin McCarthy’s contiguous district 23 where non-Hispanic Whites make the largest group (47.3%), district 21 is 73.4 % Latino and 17.4% non-Hispanic White. This translates into 59% vote-eligible Latinos and 29% vote-eligible NH Whites, still a considerable majority.
Historically, this Latino-majority district was carved-out in 2013 after years of litigation against traditional Republican gerrymandering in the Central Valley. But, as a result of massive GOP resources poured behind a quasi-Hispanic candidate (he’s the child of Portuguese immigrant farmers), against much-less resourced Democratic candidates, Valadao won the seat in 2013, then again in 2015, 2017, and 2020. His sole razor-margin loss was in 2018 against the one-term Democrat T.J. Cox.
Today, the district is considered the most competitive in California, and both parties are pouring serious money to assure victory, although mostly spent in mud-slinging TV ads. Rudy Salas, the challenger, is well known in Kern County, having served as the first Latino in Bakersfield City Council in 2010, and represented Bakersfield in the State Assembly since 2012.
Whoever wins in November, it will depend on one aspect mainly: the degree to which the Latino electorate participated. For the crucial ingredient missing from the best-laid Democratic Party plans in their contests in the Central Valley has been the low Latino turnout. This is due mostly for lack of substantially addressing and boldly challenging the Republicans on Latino issues like immigration, health care, wages, police brutality and mass incarceration, bilingual education, etc.
The Democratic Party in the Central Valley is weak and ineffective, scared of its own shadow, and prone to disingenuously blame Latino apathy for what is, actually, their corrupt Blue Dog propensities, uninspiring leadership, and overall political cowardice. The most it does to curry the Latino and all other voters is bombard folks with lame slogans for themselves and sling mud at their opponents. Not that the Republicans don’t do the same, they do the same in spades. But they hold the reins of economic and political power in the Valley, and that makes a big difference - all the Republican racist & xenophobic dog whistles and patriotic boastings effectively mobilize the White electorate, while the Democrats’ Pablum messaging turns off their working-class and ethnically diverse base.
A case in point for the need for much bolder, more sustained, and more courageous political stands to inspire and mobilize the Latino voters of District 21: in the 2020 primaries, and for the first time ever, a presidential campaign – that of Senator Bernie Sanders – invested heavily and early on Latino outreach with an unapologetic platform of progressive issues – including profound immigration reforms, police reforms, higher wages, universal health care and tuition-free college. And the result was that Bernie won in these Deep Red counties against centrist Hillary Clinton. In fact, Latinos nationwide supported Sanders more than Clinton.
There’s a lesson there. The Biden administration has utterly failed to deliver on immigration reform and other vital issues mentioned. The Dems want to swing by now and scoop the Latino vote in our Central Valley, with their same lame messaging? Good luck motivating them to even go out to vote!
And as for district 21, Valadao has shielded himself from accusations of Trumpist fealty and can coast home by merely peddling again his moderate farmer-boy/son-of-immigrants persona.
Finally, Rudy Salas. Considered a Blue Dog in Sacramento as a member of the “New Democrats” caucus beholden to Big Oil, he has nevertheless brought back the bacon to his district: $50 million for a Bakersfield College extension in Delano, $10 million for a cancer center, millions more for a future Dolores Huerta Foundation complex.
And, importantly, he supported the UFW’s top legislative priority, AB 2183, which allows for distant voting for farmworker union representation. Having overcome the governor’s reluctance to sign it, it is now the law. Salas can claim some credit, but will he dare to?
So, he’s got the full weight of the Dem. Establishment pushing for him, but as meekly as always.
Will that tip the balance of the upcoming elections to the Blue side?
It will all depend on Latino voter turnout, as it always has. Nothing has changed locally – in fact, it has demonstrably worsened for Latinos during the pandemic, who today feel betrayed and ignored once again, locally as well as at the national level.
The only tangible progress has been at the state level.
Will that suffice? Stay tuned, the results for the contest in District 21 will show whether Central Valley Latinos have finally turned a corner away from Republican hegemony in this rural area.
